According to a number of analysts revised estimates , Ant group's massive IPO （IPO） Since the suspension , The financial technology giant's valuation has shrunk as much as 1 RMBtn .
According to Morningstar and other companies ,“ New regulations on small loans ” It could reduce ant group's valuation by about half .
For ant group , The following policies in the new regulations on small loans are unfavorable ：
The small loan company shall operate the network small loan business mainly in the provincial administrative region of the place of registration ; Without the approval of the banking regulatory authority under the State Council , Small loan companies shall not carry out network small loan business across provincial administrative regions .
At the same time, small loan companies that operate network small loan business carry out loan assistance or joint loan business , In a single syndication loan , The proportion of capital contribution of a small loan company operating network small loan business shall not be less than 30%.
In principle, the balance of individual network micro loans to natural persons shall not exceed RMB 30 Ten thousand yuan , No more than the most recent 3 One third of average annual income , The lower of the two amounts is the maximum loan amount .
The second one calls for the reduction of ant group's “ Leverage ratio ”, It needs to prepare more of its own funds to lend , And the third requires it to tighten the quota , Hit the supply chain financial business .
If ant group issues 2.1 One trillion yuan valuation halved , That actually means the company's valuation is lower than it was two years ago , At that time, it was moving from Huaping , Large funds such as silver lake and Temasek raised funds there .
Falling valuations also mean , Ant group will also pay less underwriting fees to investment banks , The investment banks had expected ant group to set a record IPO
Can bring a lot of windfall money . in addition , This also reduces the possibility of ant group's large-scale acquisition , Because the company wants to expand overseas , And compete with Tencent in China .
Morning star analyst Iris Tan express , If ant group IPO Before the price to book ratio fell to the level of the world's top banks , Its valuation is likely to decline
25%-50%, That means its valuation could be cut by as much as about 1 Trillion yuan . At present, the stock price of ant group is its book value 4.4 times , The price to book ratio of these banks is 2 times .
Aletheia Capital Sanjay, finance director in Singapore · Jayne (Sanjay Jain) estimate , Ant group's P / E ratio may fall to loan profit 10
About times , That's half of what the company had set before . Citigroup and ant group's future 12 The monthly P / E ratio is estimated to be about 8 times , Singapore's DBS group estimates that 12.6 times , China Merchants Bank estimates that 10
times .
Morning star analysts said , If the new rules are passed , In order to support the ant group near 1.8 Trillions of outstanding loans , The company needs to underwrite itself 5400
Billion yuan of credit . According to the provisions of the leverage ratio of small loan companies , Ant group's credit department may need to spend and borrow at least 540 RMB 100 million .
Bernstein (Bernstein) Kevin, an analyst in Singapore · Quirk (Kevin Kwek) express ：“
When ant group went public , Investors may not see it as a technology company as before , Because it will no longer adhere to the asset light business model , Growth expectations may also be lower .
Considering regulatory challenges , There may be a discount to the previous valuation .”
by 6 end of month , Ant group 800 100 million yuan in cash , Capital requirements are expected to have a grace period of three years . Daiwa capital market (Daiwa Capital
Markets) Hong Kong based analyst Leon qi say , In order for ant group to meet certain regulatory requirements , One of the more realistic solutions is for Alibaba, an affiliated company, to inject Renminbi 200 Billion to 400
RMB100mn .
Bernstein said , Although ant group's valuation is expected to decrease , But considering the credit technology of ant group and Alipay , Valuations won't fall too much .
Aletheia Capital Analyst Jan said ：“ If the ant group can prove that it will be less affected , Or better assess the risk , It can claim a higher P / E ratio .”
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