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<>A题
全球海洋温度影响某些海洋生物的栖息地质量。当温度变化太大而不利于它们继续繁衍时,这些物种就开始寻找其他更适合他们现在和将来生活和繁殖成功的栖息地。一个美国缅因州的龙虾种群就是一个例子,它们正缓慢地向北迁移到加拿大,那里较低的海洋温度提供了一个更合适的栖息地。这个地理位置人口转移会严重扰乱依赖海洋生物物种稳定性的公司的生计。
您的团队已被苏格兰北大西洋渔业管理财团聘为顾问。该财团希望在全球海洋温度升高的情况下,更好地了解苏格兰鲱鱼和鲭鱼可能从苏格兰附近现有栖息地迁徙的相关问题。这两种鱼类对苏格兰渔业的经济贡献很大。改变鲱鱼和鲭鱼的种群位置,可能会使苏格兰较小的渔业公司在经济上不切实际,因为这些公司使用的不具备冷藏设备的渔船来捕捞新鲜鱼,并将其运送到苏格兰渔港的市场。
要求:
* 建立一个数学模型来确定这两种鱼类未来50年内最可能的位置,并且假设水温的变化足以导致人口迁移。
*
根据上诉海水温度变化的速度,使用您的模型预测最佳情况、最坏情况和最可能经过的时间,直到如果小渔业公司继续在他们现有的位置之外运营,这些种群距离足够远以至于小规模渔业公司无法捕捞。
* 根据你的预测分析,这些小型渔业公司是否应该改变他们的经营吗?